Environmental protection and production restrictions have increased, and supply and demand have become looser
On March 15, Tangshan lifted the Level II emergency response, but then on March 19, it issued the “Notice on Submitting Production Restriction and Emission Reduction Measures for Steel Industry Enterprises”, and implemented the steel mills that did not implement the response from March 20 to December. The differentiated production limit on the 31st is 30%-50%. At present, the implementation is strict, and the blast furnaces of steel enterprises have begun to stop production and limit production, which also reflects the overall tone of the carbon neutrality.
According to estimates, the second-level response period will affect the production of molten iron in Tangshan by 106,000 tons per day. However, if it is strictly implemented in accordance with the differentiated production restriction requirements, the daily production of molten iron will be affected by 115,000 tons before June 30, and 100,600 tons of molten iron will be affected after that. Converted into coke demand, it will affect 52,000 tons and 45,000 tons respectively. In terms of coking capacity to be eliminated, the original plan of 10 million tons of old production capacity will be eliminated after the heating season, but nearly 3.2 million tons of production capacity has been delayed. A total of 12 million tons of new capacity will be added in March-May.
According to the new elimination plan of coking production capacity, as well as the impact of blast furnace production restrictions and new additions, the coke supply and demand gap is estimated to be revised. It can be seen that the current coke supply and demand has been loose, with an average daily surplus of nearly 50,000 tons, and will maintain the current situation by the end of May. situation.
Coke is still on the downtrend
On March 18th, 18 coke companies in Shanxi reached an agreement to jointly support prices. At the same time, it was rumored that the environmental protection in Xiaoyi area will limit production. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of single coke in North China fell by 2.27 to 79.91%, and the full sample of single coke fell by 1.45 to 89.31%. . However, at present, the impact time is short, and the coking plant still has a profit of about 500 yuan / ton, so the probability of taking the initiative to reduce production is low. And from the inventory situation, and can not support the price. The total coke inventory has been rising for 4 consecutive weeks after the holiday, and it has peaked recently. It is understood that some traders have begun to enter the market to find goods, but the current shipments continue to hang upside down and the decline is expected to have a limited impact until there is no sign of stabilizing, and the port inventory is still maintained low. However, the output of steel mills is limited, transportation vehicles are regulated, coking plants are accelerating the accumulation of warehouses, and the inventory pressure is relatively large, and they are still passive in the price game.
In Tangshan, the policy was frequently issued in March. The main purpose is to strive to get out of the “bottom 20” in the air quality comprehensive index ranking of Tangshan City in March, and at the same time, it is in line with the overall tone of reducing crude steel production throughout the year. As of last Friday, Tangshan City ranked the bottom 13, the task is still arduous. At the same time, the market is expected to expand the environmental protection and production-restricted areas. If the scope is expanded, the downward kinetic energy of coke will further increase.